Carsten Krabbe Nielsen
Titoli dell'autore
Rational Beliefs Theory: A Review
digital

Anno:
2007
The Rational Beliefs Theory is founded on the observation that in most situations the same data
may be rationally explained (in terms of a statistical model) in many different ways. This is obvious
in a world where there is a limited number of observations. The novel idea of the Rational Beliefs
Theory is to use a technical device (namely the concept of a non-stationary but stable measure) to
formulate rational differences of opinion also in a world with «unlimited» data on the past performance
of the economy. In this article we provide a non-technical introduction to the Theory of Rational
Beliefs as well as a brief overview of the papers that have been written using this theory.
€ 6,00
Rational Beliefs and Bayesian Learning: A Note
digital

Anno:
2007
By means of an example, it is demonstrated how rational beliefs may be incorporated into a
Bayesian learning model. The empirical distribution is learned over time and the subjective rational
belief is modified accordingly.
€ 6,00
Learning to Coordinate whit Heterogeneous Belief-Formation
digital

Anno:
2005
Experiments show that players with identical information and objectives have heterogeneous
behavior rules. We formulate how different beliefs arise from the same information and analyze how
heterogeneous belief formation affects learning outcomes of two-person two-action coordination
games. With heterogeneous belief formation, it is possible to generate enough diversity in actions for
eventual coordination, which is impossible under the ordinary adaptive learning model. When each
player uses the same function to compute a belief over time, diversity of belief formation functions
within or across populations is suffcient for convergence to coordination. When players choose
belief-formation functions as well as actions over time, diverse adjustment of belief-formation functions
is suffcient. A risk-dominant equilibrium is more likely to emerge than a payoff-dominant equilibrium
since the former is more likely to be predicted by the players.
€ 6,00
Optimal Exchange Rate Regimes: Sunspots, Currency Crises, and Welfare
digital

Anno:
2004
In this two country OLG model there is a potential role for active governments since
markets are incomplete. There are many coordinated policies (exchange rate regimes) that result
in an optimal allocation if extrinsic uncertainty plays no role. However, if we take into account
the possibility of sunspot equilibria, the set of optimal policies is drastically reduced. Whenever
there is a possibility of influence by extrinsic uncertainty, one or both governments may seek to
avoid this by intervening on the foreign exchange markets. When only one country does so, this
may lead to a currency crisis, where the central bank is active and is with positive probability
unsuccessful in its attempt to defend its currency. If the two countries form a monetary union,
a coordinated fiscal policy is needed as a substitute for an optimal exchange rate regime.
€ 6,00
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