Gian Carlo Blangiardo

Un effetto della pandemia sarà un ulteriore calo, tanto che nel 2021 con tutta probabilità scenderemo sotto la soglia dei 400 mila nuovi nati, evento previsto nel 2032. Cosa accadde dopo Chernobyl, in Germania Est dopo l’89 e in Grecia dopo la crisi del 2008.

ABSTRACT How much is the total remaining life that a population has left to live? It is around this issue that a new approach to demographic accountancy is being developed, with the objective of showing the dimension of the future of a population both in terms of remaining life ‘‘asset’’ at a specific moment and of ‘‘annual incomes’’, which can be seen as the demographic GDP, the total lifeyears acquired during the course of a year from births and the net balance of migration flows. The population must then face, with the abovementioned demographic GDP, the total number of life-years consumed during the same time period, having been lived or lost through deaths. The calculation of the asset and the demographic GDP for the Italian population and that of two big European countries has suggested some thoughts on the sustainability of the current demographic development and on the possible lines of intervention to manage this trend. KEYWORDS: life potential, demographic GDP, demographic perspectives. JEL Classification: J11 – Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts.

Dal 14 al 17 ottobre, a Reggio Calabria, si svolgerà la 46a Settimana Sociale, dedicata al tema Cattolici nell’Italia di oggi. Un’agenda di speranza per il futuro del Paese. Tre interventi ne evidenziano le sfide in gioco e le opportunità da cogliere.

The Italian young people account for less than 24% of total population (the lowest percentage in the European Union) and they are going to fall down to 19% by the 2050. On the contrary, young Americans are going to raise for the next 40 years. At the same time the age of young Italians when leaving the parental household can be considered high (about 31 for men and 29 for women) compared to the other Europeans. The reasons can be found in a combination of cultural and financial constraints, but choices of convenience are important too. Finally the analysis of the prevailing values of young people shows that human rights (46,9%), peace (41,5%) and respect for human life (39,2%) are the three main personal values for the Europeans, and that rule of the law (38,3%), respect for human life (38,2%) and human rights (35,8%) are the main for the Italians. Key words: Age structure, Migration, Transition to adulthood, Sociodemographic. JEL Classification: J110, R230.

Ageing is the main challenge for European societies and migration is often suggested as a suitable solution. This article will face up to the thesis that migration can't be pointed out as an antidote to population ageing in European countries and this is particularly true for new immigration country as the Italian case. Through simulations models it is possible to show what would be the immigration scenario in births are substituited by immigrants